Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
